IRAQ UNTIL THE NEXT COUP FOR A WHILE LAST WEEK IT SEEMED 
IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL WHO WAS UP AND WHO WAS DOWN IN 
IRAQ . PERHAPS THE PRINCIPALS THEMSELVES WERE NOT SURE . TWO 
WEEKS AGO, THE BAATH PARTY (TIME, NOV . 22) SEEMED FIRMLY 
IN CONTROL . THE COUNTRY'S NON-BAATHIST PRESIDENT, FIELD MARSHAL ABDUL SALAM 
AREF, SEEMED A MERE FIGUREHEAD, KEPT ON FOR HIS PRESTIGE AND 
POPULARITY . THEN AN INTERNECINE CONFLICT ERUPTED BETWEEN BAATH'S ANTI-WESTERN, ANTI-BOURGEOIS 
AND ANTI-AREF RADICAL WING AND A MORE CONCILIATORY MODERATE FACTION . 
RUSHING IN FROM NEIGHBORING SYRIA, THE BAATH PARTY'S HOME BASE, THE 
PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE UNDER MICHEL AFLAK APPEARED TO SETTLE THE MATTER 
BY EXILING THE LEADERS OF THE OPPOSING FACTIONS . ALTHOUGH SYRIAN-DOMINATED, 
THE PARTY LEADERS TOOK CHARGE IN IRAQ, PLACED AREF UNDER PALACE 
ARREST AND TURNED BAGHDAD OVER TO THE NATIONAL GUARD, A BAATH-LED 
OUTFIT FOR WHICH THE REGULAR ARMY HAS CONTEMPT . WHEN THE 
BAATH BOSSES OVERCONFIDENTLY RELEASED AREF A FEW DAYS LATER, HE PROMPTLY 
JOINED WITH ANGRY FELLOW OFFICERS TO HEAD A COUP . AT 
DAWN ONE MORNING LAST WEEK, THE ARMY ATTACKED BAGHDAD WITH SIX 
INFANTRY BATTALIONS, SUPPORTED BY ARMOR, ARTILLERY AND JETS . THOUGH THE 
NATIONAL GUARD HAD NO HEAVY WEAPONS, THEY FOUGHT DESPERATELY, LOST HUNDREDS 
OF MEN . THREE DAYS AFTER THE REVOLT, BAGHDAD WAS IN 
AREF'S HANDS . SINCE THE BAATH PARTY IS NASSER'S ARCHENEMY, THE 
COUP WAS AT FIRST HAILED IN EGYPT AS PRO-NASSER . IT 
WAS ALSO DENOUNCED IN SYRIA AS ANTI-BAATH . BOTH CONCLUSIONS MAY 
BE PREMATURE . THE COUP LOOKED MORE LIKE A MILITARY THAN 
A POLITICAL AFFAIR, DESIGNED TO PURGE IRAQ OF BAATH ELEMENTS WHO 
HAD HAD THE TEMERITY TO DOWNGRADE THE ARMY IN FAVOR OF 
THE NATIONAL GUARD . THOUGH HE PACKED THE SYRIAN BAATH LEADERS 
OFF TO DAMASCUS, AREF INCLUDED IN HIS NEW CABINET NINE MODERATE 
BAATHISTS . STILL, THE MIDDLE EAST BEING WHAT IT IS, AREF 
MAY WELL JOIN WITH NASSER, AN OLD FRIEND, TO OVERTHROW THE 
BAATH LEADERSHIP IN SYRIA . EVEN MORE LIKELY, THE BAATH LEADERSHIP 
WILL TRY TO OVERTHROW AREF . JUST ABOUT THE ONLY CERTAINTY 
IN THE SITUATION IS THAT THERE IS BOUND TO BE ANOTHER 
COUP, IN BAGHDAD OR IN DAMASCUS, IF NOT BOTH . 