COLD WAR HOW MUCH TRADE WITH THE REDS ? NO ONE KNOWS 
BETTER THAN MOSCOW THAT TRADE IS A WEAPON IN THE COLD 
WAR . " WITH EVERY ADDITIONAL SHOVEL OF COAL, WITH EVERY 
ADDITIONAL LOAD OF OIL OBTAINED THROUGH FOREIGN HELP, " OLD BOLSHEVIK 
LEV KAMENEV ONCE PREDICTED, " CAPITALISM WILL BE DIGGING ITS OWN 
GRAVE . " FACED WITH THE CONTINUING FAILURE OF THEIR ECONOMY, 
THE RUSSIANS MAY BE FORCED TO RELY ON WHEAT FROM THE 
WEST FOR YEARS TO COME, BUT ABOVE ALL THEY WANT TO 
GET HOLD OF HEAVY INDUSTRIAL ITEMS INCLUDING WHOLE FACTORIES, WHICH RUSSIAN 
INDUSTRY ON ITS OWN CANNOT DUPLICATE FOR A LONG TIME TO 
COME . WESTERN POLICY IS DIVIDED ON HOW TO MEET THIS 
SOVIET COMMERCIAL APPEAL . SOME BELIEVE THAT TRADE WITH THE RED 
BLOC MAY HAVE POLITICAL ADVANTAGE BY MAKING THE SATELLITES LESS DEPENDENT 
ON MOSCOW AND POSSIBLY MAKING MOSCOW MORE DEPENDENT ON THE WEST 
. OTHERS, NOTABLY WEST GERMANY'S FORMER CHANCELLOR KONRAD ADENAUER, FEEL THAT 
THE WEST SHOULD TRADE WITH RUSSIA ONLY IN RETURN FOR COLD 
WAR CONCESSIONS . WASHINGTON BELIEVES THAT THIS POLICY IS NOT FEASIBLE, 
IF ONLY BECAUSE U.S . ALLIES ARE EAGER TO TRADE WITH 
THE REDS, ARE SCARCELY EVEN WILLING TO RULE OUT STRATEGIC ITEMS 
THAT NATO SPECIFICALLY FORBIDS . WESTERN EUROPEAN EXPORTS TO THE SOVIET 
BLOC LAST YEAR CLIMBED BY 10 PER CENT TO $2.2 BILLION(COMPARED 
WITH U.S . SALES OF $125 MILLION) . WHAT WASHINGTON WORRIES 
ABOUT IS NOT THE SHEER VOLUME OF SUCH DEALS BUT THE 
TERMS . WEAKENED WILLINGNESS . THE U.S . FEELS THAT IF 
THE RUSSIANS WANT TO TRADE, THEY SHOULD BE FORCED TO USE 
UP THEIR MEAGER GOLD RESERVES AND NOT BE GRANTED WHAT THEY 
WANT LONG-TERM CREDITS . SUCH CREDITS WOULD RELEASE MASSIVE SOVIET INVESTMENT 
FOR MILITARY NEEDS AND DIVERT FREE-WORLD RESOURCES FROM AID TO UNDERDEVELOPED 
NATIONS . UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE GEORGE BALL LAST WEEK WOUND 
UP A TOUR OF WESTERN EUROPE DURING WHICH HE ARGUED THE 
U.S . CASE FOR A UNIFIED, STIFFER WESTERN CREDIT POLICY AT 
LEAST 20 PER CENT CASH AND THE REST WITHIN FIVE YEARS 
. BALL RECEIVED HIS FRIENDLIEST HEARING IN WEST GERMANY, EVEN THOUGH 
BONN TOPS THE LIST OF ALLIED TRADERS WITH THE REDS . 
WEST GERMANY LAST YEAR DID JUST OVER 1 BILLION WORTH OF 
OFFICIAL BUSINESS WITH MOSCOW AND ITS SATELLITES (INCLUDING $422 MILLION WITH 
THE SOVIET UNION AND $213 MILLION WITH EAST GERMANY) ; NO 
ONE CAN GUESS ACCURATELY HOW MUCH MORE PRIVATE TRADE WENT ON 
. THOUGH SOME GERMAN INDUSTRIALISTS WERE ANXIOUS FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO 
GUARANTEE LONG-TERM CREDITS, CHANCELLOR LUDWIG ERHARD RULED OUT THE IDEA AS 
LONG AS THE SOVIETS BLOCK GERMAN REUNIFICATION . SAID ERHARD : 
" SUCH CREDITS WOULD STRENGTHEN THE SOVIET POSITION, SO THAT ITS 
WILLINGNESS TO NEGOTIATE WOULD BE WEAKENED . " GENTLEMEN'S DISAGREEMENT . 
IN PARIS, BALL ALSO GOT A SYMPATHETIC RECEPTION, A PLEASANT CHANGE 
FOR A U.S . ENVOY THESE DAYS . FRANCE LAST YEAR 
EXPORTED TO THE SOVIET BLOC GOODS WORTH ONLY ABOUT $266 MILLION 
; RUSSIAN BARTER PROPOSALS, INVOLVING A SWAP OF SOVIET COAL AND 
OIL FOR HEAVY INDUSTRIAL GOODS, ARE HIGHLY UNATTRACTIVE SINCE FRANCE CAN 
SELL ITS OWN COAL AND OIL INSIDE THE COMMON MARKET . 
BESIDES, CHARLES DE GAULLE BELIEVES THAT TRADING WITH THE SOVIETS IS 
A DIRTY BUSINESS (ALTHOUGH HE SEEMS WILLING TO TRADE WITH RED 
CHINA) AND RECENTLY DENIED AN EXPORT LICENSE TO A LEADING FRENCH 
STEEL COMPANY THAT WAS ALL SET TO BUILD A REFINERY IN 
RUSSIA . ONLY IN LONDON DID BALL FIND OPPOSITION ; THE 
BRITISH FLATLY DECLINED TO JOIN THE GENTLEMEN'S AGREEMENT TO RESTRICT THE 
SOVIETS' CREDIT . BRITAIN IS ESPECIALLY FOND OF THE IDEA THAT 
MORE TRADE WITH MOSCOW, INCLUDING STRATEGIC GOODS, WILL EVENTUALLY PACIFY THE 
SOVIETS . MOREOVER, THE NEW TORY GOVERNMENT IS EAGER TO REDUCE 
UNEMPLOYMENT BY INCREASING OUTPUT AND SHIPPING THE GOODS OVERSEAS AS FAST 
AS POSSIBLE . THE PLAN HAS NOT WORKED SO FAR : 
BRITISH EXPORTS TO RUSSIA AND EASTERN EUROPE TOTALED ONLY ABOUT $310 
MILLION IN 1962, AND NO BIG TRADE DEAL APPEARS IMMINENT . 
