THEY'RE OFF ONLY SIX WEEKS AGO, MOST BRITISH POLITICIANS BELIEVED THAT PRIME 
MINISTER HAROLD MACMILLAN'S GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT DARE CALL A GENERAL ELECTION 
BEFORE SPRING 1964 . BUT IN WESTMINSTER LAST WEEK M.P.S WERE 
WAGERING THAT THE TORIES WOULD GO TO THE PEOPLE THIS FALL 
. LABOR PARTY LEADERS EVEN CLAIMED TO KNOW THE DATE : 
OCT . 24, ABOUT THE LAST POSSIBLE THURSDAY (BRITAIN'S TRADITIONAL POLLING 
DAY) BEFORE THE END OF CAMPAIGNING SEASON . REASON FOR THE 
SHIFT IN THINKING WAS THE GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS FOR THE GOVERNMENT 
THAT CAME WITH SPRING'S THAW AFTER THE WORST WINTER OF THE 
CENTURY . SUDDENLY CAME WORD OF NEW EXPORT RECORDS, BOOMING RETAIL 
SALES AND SWELLING COMPANY PROFITS . MOST WELCOME NEWS OF ALL 
LAST WEEK WAS THAT THE REMORSELESS FIVE-MONTH RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT HAD 
FINALLY DRIFTED DOWN TO 604,000, OFF NEARLY 100,000 FROM THE MARCH 
FIGURE . PROMISES & THREATS . THE TORIES STILL FACED A 
LONG, HAZARDOUS HAUL . POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY, THE BIGGEST ROADBLOCK IS 
THAT INDUSTRY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO EXPAND AND COMPETE IN 
WORLD MARKETS WITHOUT VIGOROUS, UNPOPULAR MEASURES TO HOLD WAGE BOOSTS TO 
HALF THEIR RATE OF INCREASE OVER THE PAST DECADE . ON 
THE BRIGHT SIDE, ECONOMISTS NOW BELIEVE THAT, BY FALL, CHANCELLOR OF 
THE EXCHEQUER REGINALD MAUDLING'S CANNY BUDGET (TIME, APRIL 12) WILL HAVE 
BOOSTED PRODUCTION, WHITTLED UNEMPLOYMENT AND PUT EXTRA SPENDING MONEY IN LOWER-INCOME 
POCKETS . IN FACT, MANY TORY M.P.S NOW FEAR THAT IF 
THE GOVERNMENT WAITS UNTIL NEXT YEAR BEFORE CALLING THE ELECTION, IT 
MAY LOSE ITS GAINS IN ANOTHER WINTER SLUMP AND HAVE EVEN 
LESS TIME FOR RECOVERY BEFORE ITS FIVEYEAR MANDATE EXPIRES IN OCTOBER 
1964 . IN ANY CASE, THE CAMPAIGN IS ALREADY UNDER WAY 
. PRIME MINISTER HAROLD MACMILLAN THREW A STRAW IN THE WIND 
BY REAPPOINTING HARDHEADED LORD POOLE AS COCHAIRMAN OF THE PARTY WITH 
LEADER OF THE HOUSE IAIN MACLEOD . POOLE, WHO RAISED RECORD 
SUMS FOR THE TORIES IN THE 1955 AND 1959 CAMPAIGNS, IS 
THE REPUTED AUTHOR OF THE " NEVER-HAD-IT-SO-GOOD " THEME THAT HELPED 
RETURN THE GOVERNMENT AT THE LAST ELECTION . GREY UTOPIA . 
LAST WEEKEND, WITH POOLE AND 32 OTHER TOP TORIES WHO WERE 
SUMMONED TO THE PRIME MINISTER'S COUNTRY HOME, MACMILLAN STARTED DRAFTING THE 
PARTY'S BROAD, LONG-TERM PROGRAM OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REFORM . ITS 
THEME, SAID MACMILLAN, WILL BE " MODERNIZE NOT NATIONALIZE . " 
IN HIS FIERCEST ATTACK ON LABOR IN MANY MONTHS, THE PRIME 
MINISTER CHARGED IN A SPEECH TO GLASGOW TORIES THAT " THE 
SOCIALISTS HAVE NOTHING TO OFFER EXCEPT OLD THREATS SUPPORTED BY SLY 
PROMISES . " THE OPPOSITION, DECLARED MACMILLAN, STILL CLINGS TO ITS 
" OLD-HAT " VIEW OF A SOCIALIST UTOPIA, IN WHICH " 
EVERYBODY IS MORE OR LESS THE SAME SHADE OF GREY . 
" HE INSISTED THAT UNDER LABOR, BRITAIN WOULD REVERT SWIFTLY TO 
THE STATUS OF A " SECONDCLASS POWER . " MACMILLAN'S FINAL 
DECISION ON THE ELECTION DATE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE GALLUP 
POLL PERCENTAGES, WHICH IN APRIL SHOWED A FRACTIONAL SLIP IN LABOR'S 
MASSIVE LEAD, NOW 49.5 PER CENT TO 34 PER CENT , 
OVER THE TORIES . OTHER OMENS WILL BE THE RESULTS OF 
THREE SPRING BY-ELECTIONS NECESSITATED BY THE DEATHS OF HUGH GAITSKELL AND 
TWO OTHER LABOR M.P.S . ONE THING WAS CERTAIN : AT 
69, HAROLD MACMILLAN IS STILL CONFIDENT THAT THE PARTY CANNOT YET 
DISPENSE WITH HIS LEADERSHIP . BY WAY OF PATCHING PARTY MORALE, 
HE HAS ALREADY QUASHED BACK-BENCH RUMORS THAT HE MIGHT STEP DOWN 
. " I'LL BE LEADING YOU INTO THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, 
/ HE TOLD TORY M.P.S RECENTLY, " AND I'LL BE WITH 
YOU IN THE NEW PARLIAMENT . / 